Final Score: Vancouver FC 1-1 Valour FC
Goalscorers: Díaz 76′; Faria 54′
Game of the 2024 season: 108
CPL match: 52

Match in a minute or less

Both needing a win to boost their playoff hopes heading into the final matchday of Canadian Premier League action, Vancouver and Valour were instead forced to settle for a draw at Willoughby Community Park on Sunday, one that still keeps their playoff hopes alive, albeit just narrowly.

Jordan Faria opened the scoring for Valour in the 54th minute, as Shaan Hundal found him wide-open in the box on a counter-attack, and Faria made no mistake in slotting home to make it 1-0.

Then, Alejandro Díaz answered back for Vancouver in the 76th minute, as Grady McDonnell did well to find him wide open inside of the box with a nice lay-off, and Díaz made no mistake in slotting home from close range to tie the game up at 1-1.

From there, however, despite a late push for a winner from both sides, neither team would be able to find a late marker, leaving the game to finish as a draw.

Three Observations

Draw keeps both teams playoff hopes alive but dropped points loom large:

Heading into this game, there was a lot to play for, as both teams looked to boost their playoff hopes with a win, especially after Pacific’s win over York United earlier in this 27th matchday.

Because of that Pacific win, Vancouver needed to win to keep control of their own destiny heading into the final matchday, while Valour needed a victory to significantly increase their odds of playoff qualification.

On the flipside, neither side could afford a loss – Valour would’ve been eliminated outright from playoff contention with that result, while Vancouver’s playoff hopes would’ve been taken out of their hands completely.

Then, there was the possibility of a draw, which while not fatal for either side’s playoff hopes, was less than ideal, given that it kept both teams alive but needing to win and get some help to clinch a playoff berth.

Because of that, it made it interesting to see how both teams would approach this – would they come out and play cautiously, wanting to avoid opening the game up too much, or would they throw caution to the wind and try and find an early advantage?

It turns out that to start, the former would be the way to go, as both teams opted to use a conservative approach to begin the match.

The stats at half time reflect the nature of that first half – both teams combined for just four shots (three for Vancouver, one for Valour), yielding just 0.27 xG (0.26 for Vancouver and 0.01 for Valour).

Knowing that the first goal could be so massive, both teams instead focused on using a strong defensive posture, perhaps with an eye on opening things up as the game went along.

Turns out, that’d be the case, as the game then opened right up in the second half. To be fair, it helped that the state of the match was altered by Valour’s goal early into the first half, which forced Vancouver into action, which then led them to push until they found their equalizer.

Then, after that, it led to a game state best described as chaos, as both teams opened up the match and started to send numbers flying forward.

Unfortunately, despite a frantic last 15 minutes, it didn’t yield a winner for either side – somehow, despite a swarm of transition moments where the attacking team had numerical superiority over the defensive side in dangerous areas, both teams combined for just two shots after the 82nd minute.

As a result, when the final whistle eventually blew, players on both teams ended up falling to the ground, both due to fatigue after the wild ending, but also because of the reality of what the draw means to both teams playoff hopes.

“We tried to get the win in a difficult place, because we knew what this meant (for us), and also for Vancouver, they don’t want to put their faith in in the hands of another club, which ended up happening today with the draw. ” Valour’s head coach, Phil Dos Santos said. “That’s football. You have to focus on the elements that you can absolutely control, and that’s where our focus is.”

“In football, it’s (a game of) psychology first and foremost,” Vancouver’s head coach, Afshin Ghotbi offered. “I think the higher the level you go to, the mental and psychological part plays a bigger factor, and then you need players that embrace these kind of pressure situations, and hope the pressure brings the best out of them rather than the worst of them.”

Now, it’s left both teams to head into that last matchday needing to win and hoping for a bit of help on top of that, which is never ideal.

Yet, on a day where they could’ve certainly improved their odds heading into that final matchday, they were unable to split the difference, and at this time of the year, that might prove to be costly.

That’s the beauty of these matches, however – with all to play for, it can lead to dramatic outcomes, and certainly from a neutral perspective, this game didn’t lack for drama late on even if it didn’t lead to an outcome either team will be pleased with, and that isn’t lost on those who participated in the match.

“At this tail end of the season, I think every game is like a final,” Valour’s centre back, Tass Mourdoukoutas offered after the match. “When there’s things to go for, you start seeing a lot of that openness and people pushing forward, and that’s the beauty of the game.”

“These must wins, these are games you want to be a part of,” Vancouver centre back, Rocco Romeo, added.

Too little, too late for Vancouver’s attack:

Ultimately, if Vancouver does end up missing the playoffs, they’ll look back at a game like this as a prime example of some of the opportunities they failed to capitalize on over the last few months.

After this draw, they’ve officially ensured they’ll finish the season with the fewest points gained from home matches across the CPL, as they’ve only picked up a league-low 16 points from 14 home matches.

Yet, that’s because they’ve now finished the year with a stretch of nine games where they’ve picked up just five points from nine home games, sitting with a record of 1w-2D-6L across that run.

When seeing where they sit in the playoff race, which is two points behind fifth place Pacific, one can only imagine what they could’ve done had they turned a few more of those home draws and losses into wins, which could’ve allowed them to push even higher up the table.

The big frustration, however, will be with their attack, as they’ve only scored five times across those nine home games, and have scored more than one goal in a game at home only three times all season (all three games came within their first four home matches).

As a result, it’s made it tough to win, as teams who do well at home tend to score goals, and Vancouver hasn’t been able to find that same jolt of offence needed to get these games over the line.

This game is a prime example of what that can look like. Overall, Vancouver put in a good performance, especially defensively, as they limited Valour to just two shots all game and held 57.7% of possession.

They’ll be frustrated that they conceded a goal from one of those two shots, as in most games a defensive performance like that would’ve led to a clean sheet, but they’ll instead look back at a frustrating breakdown as the reason for that – and at the end of the day, those things happen.

On a day where they needed to win to regain control of their playoff hopes, however, they’ll have hoped to have been able to muster up more in the attack, as they generated just eight shots for a total of 0.92 xG.

In particular, they struggled offensively to start the game, as they were a bit lopsided in possession, lacking a true left-sided threat. To their credit, they adjusted and changed that for the second half, which helped them finish the match strongly, but by then they were chasing the game, instead of playing more on the front foot as they would’ve hoped to.

No doubt, part of this came down to the nature of the match – had they played too aggressively from the start, they could’ve been punished for that by conceding an early goal, which would’ve made things much tougher for them to win.

At the same time, at home, needing a win, they’ll have hoped to have offered more of a dangerous offensive presence from the start, even while factoring in the need to keep things tight at the back, allowing them to break things open.

“I wanted the offensive push from the beginning, I felt that maybe even with the lineup that we had, we had enough quality in the field to score,” Ghotbi offered. “But at the same time, I want to make sure we didn’t take any goals.”

Late goal sinks Valour once again:

When reflecting on this stretch of the season, one where Valour’s done well to push back into the playoff race after a slow start to the year, they’ll be pleased with their ability to grind points out of games as of late.

Now, after this match, they’ve only lost three of their last 13 matches, doing well to pick up the points needed to keep them alive in the playoff race heading into this final matchday.

At the same time, they’ve left points on the table, and this game was a prime example of that, as a familiar issue came back to haunt them.

As they’ve done in four of their last six games, they took the lead, but in the end, they were unable to hold onto it as they conceded a late goal.

Yet, that’s been a familiar theme across those four matches – despite taking the lead in all of them, they’ve only won one and drawn three, with this draw being the third one. Not only that, but they’ve conceded the equalizing goal after the 75th minute in all of those three draws, too, as they’ve also been undone by later markers.

Asked about that trend, however, Dos Santos had an interesting answer, suggesting that a big reason for those struggles late has been due to some old habits that have remained stuck in their game.

A team that does well to play on the front foot, which is why they’ve done well to get off to good starts to games, they’ve had a tendency to drop back and play a bit deeper when they get the lead, inviting teams to apply pressure.

That’s a dangerous game to play, especially if you drop too early, and Valour’s paid the price for that with the timing of some of those goals they’ve conceded.

“I think that we we start backing off a little bit too much from the opposition,” Dos Santos explained. “And that’s something where you play with fire. Sometimes it’s going to go your way, and you hold on, but sometimes you will suffer.”

That’ll be frustrating for them, as they’ve done well to be competitive in games, and do well to put themselves in a position to leave with maximum points, but late goals like this one have proven to be quite costly, as they could’ve been a playoff spot had they turned two or even three of their recent draws into victories by seeing out matches later on.

Yet, that remains the big thing Valour has struggled with across this stretch – managing moments. Overall, they’ve proven to be a team that can control large stretches of games on both sides of the ball – they’re comfortable without the ball and on it, which is a huge asset – but they haven’t always turned those stretches of control into the goals they deserve, and have been prone to defensive lapses that cost them goals even when putting in a good defensive performance.

In this game, the latter ended up being what hurt them, as they did well to limit Vancouver’s chances, but one lapse in the box is what sunk them on the Díaz goal.

Now, they’ll look to try and put them behind them as they try and pull off a surprise result on the last matchday. Needing a win and for Vancouver to lose or draw and for Pacific to lose (and by a significant margin), they’re going to need a lot to go their way if they’re to book their first-ever CPL playoff spot.

At the same time, they still have a chance, and based on how their second half of the season has gone, they know that they’ll go out and give a good effort in their final match, at least giving them an opportunity to dream of turning that chance at the playoffs into a reality.

If they do come up short, however, they’ll look back at games like this as missed opportunities, with the late goals they’ve conceded being a big reason for that.

“It’s what happens at this time of year,” Mourdoukoutas said. “People just wanting it a little bit too much, then they get pushed out of position a little bit, or then there’s a lack of energy from the defensive team needed to make the stop, and that’s part of football.”

CanPL.ca Player of the Match

James Cameron, Vancouver FC

James Cameron was lively for Vancouver at full back, putting in a strong effort on both sides of the ball. As a result, he finished with 40 out of 49 passes completed (82%), 84 touches, one dribble, six passes into the final third, seven out of eight long balls, two tackles, five recoveries and 11 out of 18 duels won in a lively performance.

What’s next?

Both teams will turn their attention to the final matchday of CPL action, the Outcome, where all eight teams in the league will be in action simultaneously on Saturday, October 19th. There, Vancouver will head out on the road to face Atlético Ottawa at TD Place (1:00 p.m. PT/4:00 p.m. ET), while Valour will host Cavalry at Princess Auto Stadium (2:00 p.m. MT/3:00 p.m. CT).

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